The Ed 2012 Presidential Race Book

[ed]

I will cover all bets, I am the house. I will adjust the odds as I see fit and depending upon the winds, so to speak.

Currently I call it a dead heat.

Units of exchange are the Quatloo or Cyber buck (100 cyberbucks=1 quatloo)

Be aware that I really know little about betting so that if I say the odds are 3:5 I have no idea what precisely that means so you are going to have to provide some help along the way. I am a quick study though. We will keep the books on this thread so that I don't screw it up too much.

Let the betting begin.

[Abdul Alhazred]

500 Quatloos on the "favorite" (Obama).

[Rob Lister]

500 Quatloos on the "favorite" (Obama).

ouch. that's a lot. ed will have a hard time laying off that much.

ed. recommend you reject abdul's bet until you have more in the fund.

I'm going to wait to see if Mitt picks Ms. Rice as the VP. Then I'm only in for a 5cb.

[ed]

500 Quatloos on the "favorite" (Obama).

ouch. that's a lot. ed will have a hard time laying off that much.

ed. recommend you reject abdul's bet until you have more in the fund.

I'm going to wait to see if Mitt picks Ms. Rice as the VP. Then I'm only in for a 5cb.

recommend you reject abdul's bet until you have more in the fund.

errr ok.

Abdul, get the fuck outtahere ya limpin' lyin' bastard.

Rob: Too strong?

[Anaxagoras]

20 quatloos on Obama.

[Rob Lister]

500 Quatloos on the "favorite" (Obama).

ouch. that's a lot. ed will have a hard time laying off that much.

ed. recommend you reject abdul's bet until you have more in the fund.

I'm going to wait to see if Mitt picks Ms. Rice as the VP. Then I'm only in for a 5cb.

recommend you reject abdul's bet until you have more in the fund.

errr ok.

Abdul, get the fuck outtahere ya limpin' lyin' bastard.

Rob: Too strong?

uh...maybe. Something more like "Let me make a few calls Abdul. I'll let you know in a few days if I can cover that." Never burn the bridge to a sucker.


And make sure you keep track of all the bets on little postie-notes. That way you can eat the evidence in case McGarrett comes snooping.

[ed]

500 Quatloos on the "favorite" (Obama).

Abdul, could you please hold that bet for a couple of days? Its that Obama induced recession/depression acting up. 'K?

Snuggles

e

[Abdul Alhazred]

500 Quatloos on the "favorite" (Obama).

Abdul, could you please hold that bet for a couple of days? Its that Obama induced recession/depression acting up. 'K?

Snuggles

e

Romney's slogan "Just like the other guy, only less".

[ed]

500 Quatloos on the "favorite" (Obama).

Abdul, could you please hold that bet for a couple of days? Its that Obama induced recession/depression acting up. 'K?

Snuggles

e

Romney's slogan "Just like the other guy, only less".

"Just like the other guy, only whiter"

[Abdul Alhazred]

"Just like the other guy, only whiter"

That too.

It's not a winning position.

[DrMatt]

How many golden kratchmuks?

[Rob Lister]

How many silver kratchmuks?

fuckin' foreigners.

[Anaxagoras]

Hey Ed, can we set up a side pool on who Romney's running mate will be?

I'd like to put 10 quatloos on Rubio and 5 on Nikki Haley.

[Mycroft]

Put me down for 100 cyberbucks on Obama. I'd wager in Quatloos, but then who would use cyberbocks?

[Abdul Alhazred]

He's back.

[ed]

Hey Ed, can we set up a side pool on who Romney's running mate will be?

I'd like to put 10 quatloos on Rubio and 5 on Nikki Haley.

Covered

[ed]

Put me down for 100 cyberbucks on Obama. I'd wager in Quatloos, but then who would use cyberbocks?

cool

[corplinx]

I'll take Famous Titties for 400.

[Rob Lister]

I'll take Famous Titties for 400.

Whose Boobs Are They

I would have scored higher but my mouse got slippery.

[Cool Hand]

500 Quatloos on the "favorite" (Obama).

Abdul, could you please hold that bet for a couple of days? Its that Obama induced recession/depression acting up. 'K?

Snuggles

e

Being a bookie -- you're doing it wrong.

Ed, please. The way you hedge big bets you might not be able to cover isn't to cancel the bet. You take it and then make sure you take another bet or combo of bets in the same amount on the other side. That way, you have no risk and you take the vig from both bets.

You're welcome.

Degenerate gambler.

[Rob Lister]

500 Quatloos on the "favorite" (Obama).

Abdul, could you please hold that bet for a couple of days? Its that Obama induced recession/depression acting up. 'K?

Snuggles

e

Being a bookie -- you're doing it wrong.

Ed, please. The way you hedge big bets you might not be able to cover isn't to cancel the bet. You take it and then make sure you take another bet or combo of bets in the same amount on the other side. That way, you have no risk and you take the vig from both bets.

You're welcome.

Degenerate gambler.

Since the bet was the very first, and very, very large, and without knowing how much he can lay off later, deferring, or at least delaying, was the correct choice. If his reputation for 'taking any bet' was at stake, he could have moved the odds to reduce his risk.

[ed]

500 Quatloos on the "favorite" (Obama).

Abdul, could you please hold that bet for a couple of days? Its that Obama induced recession/depression acting up. 'K?

Snuggles

e

Being a bookie -- you're doing it wrong.

Ed, please. The way you hedge big bets you might not be able to cover isn't to cancel the bet. You take it and then make sure you take another bet or combo of bets in the same amount on the other side. That way, you have no risk and you take the vig from both bets.

You're welcome.

Degenerate gambler.

Abdul, I accept yiour bet.

CH, I accept your bet.

Maurice, keep your eye on both of them.

[Cool Hand]

CH, I accept your bet.

Maurice, keep your eye on both of them.

Thank you. We both win.

Maurice? He'll have to get past my mutant ninja attack kitten first. Careful, he's got two extra claws on each foot and he's not afraid to use them.

CH

[Nyarlathotep]

Maurice is your enforcer? Maurice? Who can be intimidated by a guy named Maurice?

[ed]

CH, I accept your bet.

Maurice, keep your eye on both of them.

Thank you. We both win.

Maurice? He'll have to get past my mutant ninja attack kitten first. Careful, he's got two extra claws on each foot and he's not afraid to use them.

CH

Maurice is an angry black man who is angry because a honky lawyer convinced him to plea bargain in a murder where he was indisputably out of the country on active duty with the US Army. The lawyer convinced him that "a black Medal of Honor winner can't get a fair deal from the man". This in largely black Washington DC. The lawyer's name was Saul something.

Errrrr ... you wouldn't be a honky lawyer by any chance, would you?

[Bearguin]

What's the exchange for Canadian Tire Money?

[ed]

What's the exchange for Canadian Tire Money?

no fucking moose pelts please.

[gnome]

Now that a few bets for Obama are in, can I get some odds on Romney?

[Cool Hand]

Now that a few bets for Obama are in, can I get some odds on Romney?

Ummm....yeah, well wouldn't that just be the reverse of the odds on Obama?

CH

[gnome]

Wouldn't he adjust the odds if there were lots of bets for Obama? Maybe I'm not a betting man enough to understand.

Anyway, 1000 quatloos on Romney. It's really a strategic move. If Romney wins, at least I have a bunch of quatloos to comfort me

[hammegk]

Hey Ed, can we set up a side pool on who Romney's running mate will be?

I'd like to put 10 quatloos on Rubio and 5 on Nikki Haley.

I'd like to put something in Nikki Haley.

[sparks]

Hey Ed, can we set up a side pool on who Romney's running mate will be?

I'd like to put 10 quatloos on Rubio and 5 on Nikki Haley.

I'd like to put something in Nikki Haley.

hammy, FTW.

[hammegk]

u r welcome.

[RCC]

I'd suggest using a point spread rather than odds seeing this is a one on one deal. Also more fun.

Odds are more of a horse race thing and usually are good at post time, meaning that if Romney were now 4-1 and a bunch of money came out on Romney thus lowering the odds so that on election day he pays off at 3-1, then your bet would pay out at the lower number, 3-1. No reason to bet early as the race develops.

Odds are generally calculated by taking all bets into a pool, then subtracting the house take (I'm imagine that is zero here) and then assigning payouts to each horse that would result in paying off the whole pool to the bettors. Like if you had 100K total bet and 1K bet on Gary Johnson, he would go off at 99-1 so that if he won the bettor would get his 1K back and the 99K left in the pool.

A point spread is better. It usually pays out based on the spread at the time the bet is placed, not at game time.

As a bookie what you have to do is set a number and then move it up and down to try to balance your books. This is more of a game because I'd bet right now like a ton on Obama at even but if the price went to Obama -10 (Obama favored by 10) I'd go the other way and have a chance to win both bets if Obama wins by less than 10...

So you set that number, and if the bets are one-sided you move it. Like now, it appears that pick 'em (slang for no spread) is going to bring lopsided $$ in favor of Obama, so you would move the spread to Obama -2 or whatever you think would get people to bet on Romney.

The other benefit to the spread concept is that it stays interesting. If one of the candidates goes Walter Mondale on us then there still can be action as to whether he loses by 19 or 20%.

I would suggest the following:

1) Start over
2) 1% = one point
3) Assume a two way race. Calculate the % from a pool of total votes counted for the two candidates eliminating 3rd party votes. Using simple numbers, if Obama gets 5M, Romney gets 4M, and assorted morons get 1M, then the score would be Obama 55.5% and Romney 44.4% rather than 50-40.
4) Start it out at Obama -3, but as the bookie this is your call.
5) Each bettor is limited to one bet of up to five units each day.

[RCC]

With the above system we probably need to give Ed some juice so that he has a chance of showing a profit if he balances his books no matter who wins.

Standard would be to pay off all winners at 11-10, or 1 units for every 1.1 units bet. To do this we can just assume that a one unit bet is actually 1.1 units....