The UK thread

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asthmatic camel
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Re: The UK thread

Post by asthmatic camel » Sun Dec 22, 2019 2:37 pm

They're not off to a very good start.

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Re: The UK thread

Post by Giz » Sun Dec 22, 2019 5:44 pm

asthmatic camel wrote:
Sun Dec 22, 2019 2:37 pm
They're not off to a very good start.

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Depends what they are going for. Rees-mogg might consider that a great Victorian, uh, victory!

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Re: The UK thread

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:04 pm

Is anything really going to happen before final Brexit at the end of next month?
Or are the Tories somehow going to use that time to fuck up everything even before that?

For one thing (maybe I'm judging by US standards too much?) the ban on public transit strikes is apt to be tied up in the courts for longer than that. In other words, something short term tactical by the Tories to keep things moving for six weeks and backing off after Brexit.
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Re: The UK thread

Post by ed » Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:58 pm

OK, give it to me low.

WTF is going on? When are the brits out of the EU once and for all. No flapping, no arm waving. Just the facts. No more than four declarative sentences with no commas or clauses.
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Re: The UK thread

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:10 pm

According to Boris Johnson, out by Jan 31 for real this time. In my opinion, maybe.

Once Brexit is really really really really achieved, I believe some sort of socialism will be back on the table, but AC appears to be pessimistic.

I'm open to being corrected by any of our UKers, but that's how it looks to me right now.
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Re: The UK thread

Post by asthmatic camel » Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:11 pm

This is the current state of play.
MPs have backed Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plan for the UK to leave the EU on 31 January.

They voted 358 to 234 - a majority of 124 - in favour of the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill, which now goes on to further scrutiny in Parliament.

The bill would also ban an extension of the transition period - during which the UK is out of the EU but follows many of its rules - past 2020.

The PM said the country was now "one step closer to getting Brexit done".

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn told his MPs to vote against the bill, saying there was "a better and fairer way" to leave the EU - but six of them backed the government.

Mr Johnson insists a trade deal with the EU can be in place by the end of the transition period, but critics say this timescale is unrealistic.
Source.
Shit happens. The older you get, the more often shit happens. So you have to try not to give a shit even when you do. Because, if you give too many shits, you've created your own shit creek and there's no way out other than swimming through the shit. Oh, and fuck.

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Re: The UK thread

Post by ed » Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:15 pm

Thank you.

Why socialism, Abdul? IOt seemed to me that the whole Brexit thing was a repudiation of increased central authority.
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Re: The UK thread

Post by asthmatic camel » Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:18 pm

Abdul Alhazred wrote:
Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:10 pm
According to Boris Johnson, out by Jan 31 for real this time. In my opinion, maybe.

Once Brexit is really really really really achieved, I believe some sort of socialism will be back on the table, but AC appears to be pessimistic.

I'm open to being corrected by any of our UKers, but that's how it looks to me right now.
I'm not pessimistic in the long term but it seems likely the Tories are here for at least the next five years.
Shit happens. The older you get, the more often shit happens. So you have to try not to give a shit even when you do. Because, if you give too many shits, you've created your own shit creek and there's no way out other than swimming through the shit. Oh, and fuck.

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Re: The UK thread

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:32 pm

ed wrote:
Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:15 pm
Thank you.

Why socialism, Abdul? IOt seemed to me that the whole Brexit thing was a repudiation of increased central authority.
The problem isn't central authority, it's national sovereignty.

The UK went socialist for the first time (non Communist style) under the Labour Party right after VE Day, and no nonsense about Germans writing regulations for the British.
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Re: The UK thread

Post by ceptimus » Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:17 pm

Although we will leave the EU officially on 31st January, nothing much will change until, at the earliest, the end of 2020. A so-called 'transition period' will begin on 1st February.

Almost everything stays the same during the transition period: free movement of goods, services, and people; we still pay money to the EU for the privilege of being a member; and we still have to obey all EU rules and regulations. We won't have any representation in the EU parliament though - all our MEPs and other representatives will be sent home. We can't finalize trade deals with any other country (e.g. USA) - we can negotiate deals, but they can't come into effect until after the transition period. We're also supposed to negotiate a trade deal between the UK and the EU during the transition period - the EU were not, and still are not prepared to discuss this until after we've officially left - an absolutely fucking stupid situation, but that's EU rules for you.

The transition period was originally allowed to be extended for two or three years if both sides agreed, and that's what the EU expected and hoped for. But Boris has said that he won't allow any extension and we'll definitely be completely out just over a year from now.
Last edited by ceptimus on Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The UK thread

Post by ed » Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:19 pm

we still pay money to the EU for the privilege of being a member;
and we still have to obey all EU rules and regulations.

We won't have any representation in the EU parliament though

hell of a deal you lot negotiated
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Re: The UK thread

Post by ceptimus » Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:22 pm

ed wrote:
Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:19 pm
we still pay money to the EU for the privilege of being a member;
and we still have to obey all EU rules and regulations.

We won't have any representation in the EU parliament though

hell of a deal you lot negotiated
The EU were very clever negotiators. They only allowed us to negotiate the things they wanted - how much we pay them for leaving (thirty nine billion euros is the current estimate), and what rules will apply to Ireland. The EU flatly refused to talk about what the UK wanted (future trade deal) until after we'd paid them and left.

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Re: The UK thread

Post by Giz » Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:36 pm

ceptimus wrote:
Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:22 pm
ed wrote:
Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:19 pm
we still pay money to the EU for the privilege of being a member;
and we still have to obey all EU rules and regulations.

We won't have any representation in the EU parliament though

hell of a deal you lot negotiated
The EU were very clever negotiators. They only allowed us to negotiate the things they wanted - how much we pay them for leaving (thirty nine billion euros is the current estimate), and what rules will apply to Ireland. The EU flatly refused to talk about what the UK wanted (future trade deal) until after we'd paid them and left.
At that point May should have threatened no-deal but she caved

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Re: The UK thread

Post by ed » Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:39 pm

ceptimus wrote:
Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:22 pm
ed wrote:
Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:19 pm
we still pay money to the EU for the privilege of being a member;
and we still have to obey all EU rules and regulations.

We won't have any representation in the EU parliament though

hell of a deal you lot negotiated
The EU were very clever negotiators. They only allowed us to negotiate the things they wanted - how much we pay them for leaving (thirty nine billion euros is the current estimate), and what rules will apply to Ireland. The EU flatly refused to talk about what the UK wanted (future trade deal) until after we'd paid them and left.
Well ... you could have interned every froggie in London and negotiated a price for letting them go.

It is pretty remarkable though. Do they have leverage? Seems the PR leverage is all on your side. This has to make the Poles et al a bit restive.
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Re: The UK thread

Post by ed » Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:44 pm

and who the hell is actually calling the shots?

Don't tell me it's the bloody krauts.

Is It?
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Re: The UK thread

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:52 pm

Suppose UK gummint unilaterally stops paying and obeying, signs trade treaty with other countries etc?

In short acts like an independent country?

What does the EU do about it?
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Re: The UK thread

Post by Giz » Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:12 pm

ed wrote:
Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:44 pm
and who the hell is actually calling the shots?

Don't tell me it's the bloody krauts.

Is It?
It’s gonna leave such a hole in their budget they’ll soon be sour krauts

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Re: The UK thread

Post by ceptimus » Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:18 pm

Any EU member country has a legally binding agreement with the EU under international law. The EU knows that any EU country that just unilaterally leaves would be breaking international law, and that any third countries would be unwilling or at least reluctant to deal with that country breaking international law.

Even if a third country were prepared to do that, the EU would retaliate hard against that country - so it's only countries that have no significant trade with the EU that would be prepared to take the risk - and I don't think there are any such countries.

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Re: The UK thread

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:31 pm

International law? :lmao:
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Re: The UK thread

Post by Anaxagoras » Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:55 pm

They'll be out in a year anyway. That would be silly. As ceptimus explained and I understand it, the transition period begins February 1st, and Brexit will happen January 1st, 2021. Negotiations over the final trade agreement, etc. begin when the transition period begins. That's going to be the tricky part.
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