Table 1 comment thread

Stump your fellow simians.
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Bearguin
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Post by Bearguin »

Aoidoi wrote:
Bearguin wrote:
Aoidoi wrote:Gosh, shouldn't have folded that pair of kings.
Liar ;-)
The deck has 6 kings, right? :D

edit... um, who is first?
::smacks aoidoi in the head:: You are

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Beleth
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Post by Beleth »

Bearguin wrote:God dammitt!

Another frickin split plot.

Shit.
You guys have far, far more interesting hands than table 2 does.

2 people with the same full house? That's pretty freaking cool.
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shemp
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Post by shemp »

RCC deals these split pots just for cheap laughs.
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Bearguin
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Post by Bearguin »

Am I on drugs or was RCC not suppossed to flop?

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Aoidoi
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Post by Aoidoi »

are those options mutually exclusive? :p
"Skeptics," he said, "suffer from the skeptics' disease-- the problem of being right too often."
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RCC
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Post by RCC »

I fixed it.

I'm a little insane right now. Feel free to call my attention to this sort of thing...

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Aoidoi
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Post by Aoidoi »

You're insane? Twice in a row I just tried to figure out who was up, only to eventually realize it was me.

Got used to Cecil auto-folding ahead of me :D
"Skeptics," he said, "suffer from the skeptics' disease-- the problem of being right too often."
- Scott Adams, "God's Debris: A Thought Experiment"

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Bearguin
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Post by Bearguin »

Nothing to say you both aren't insane. (And that I'm on drugs as well).

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Bearguin
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Post by Bearguin »

Crap. I ended up with a straight.

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Aoidoi
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Post by Aoidoi »

Ok, brain goes "holy shit, made 3 of a kind on the river! Yes!"

pause

"Wait, what'd he have? Ace high? I had him beat anyway? Now I'm just confused!" :D

I'm really confused. I've managed to call twice with the best hand, but I have no idea if I'm playing crappy and getting lucky or playing well. Cause hand before this I was holding onto an open ended straight draw I probably should have dropped earlier.

Bearguin, I've had a few hands where I folded and would have hit 2 pair on the flop. It sucks, but I think I prefer it to looking at the board after the river and having jack high and thinking "I really don't want to show this hand." :D

ETA: Wow, I was thinking that worse case I'd have a shot at the 10 for a straight, but I'd have been royally hosed if a 10 came off (he'd have had the ace high straight with mine a queen high). The more I think about this the more I'm figuring I was just plain lucky. I was thinking he had 2nd pair (jacks).
"Skeptics," he said, "suffer from the skeptics' disease-- the problem of being right too often."
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Yahweh
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Post by Yahweh »

Here I am thinking "Hey, I bet he doesnt have three 8's"...

I really thought I could stretch my hand into a straight, or at least get an Ace or King on the river.

Good play, Aoidoi :)
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RCC
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Post by RCC »

Lets look at the call...

So you had a pair of eights on a board with obvious straights possible, a flush possible, and three overcards, and a player who has not been exactly reckless moves all in when the 9h, a card that not only makes several straights and straight draws possible if he has a ten, but also completes a flush and is yet another overcard....

Ye gads...

On the turn the board is 7c Jh Qh 9h.

What hands that Yahweh will call your raise preflop with then bet into you can you beat?

Consider the possible outcomes:

1) He already has a flush. You are drawing dead.
2) He has a straight and a higher heart. Dead again.
3) He has a pair and a higher heart. You are dead to an eight or a non-heart ten, 5 outs or about 11%. Unless he has a king then you are dead to an 8. Two outs, or about 5% to win...
and so forth...

The median hand seems to be a higher pair and no heart and no king. Say AQ or AJ. This leaves you drawing to two remaining 8s, a heart, or a ten. 9 hearts, 2 eights, and 3 tens, for 14 total outs or around 31% to win.

This of course leaves you with an interesting decision, as the pot is laying you about 3-1 to call. If he has that AQ or AJ, as you indicate you suspect he does, then the call is close, and seems marginally profitable in a tournament where the only prize is first...

If you value a higher finish and are judging your outcome by how long you last, then the value of survival tilts toward a fold. However, if you play to win and consider second place the first loser, then if you believe that AJ w/no flush or straight draws a call is somewhat correct.

The best (for you) reasonable hand he could have is I think the one he did have, AK with no heart. This left him drawing to 4 non heart pair outs, and 3 non-heart tens. 7 outs of 44 cards, somewhere around 15%. Make one of those cards a heart and that jumps to 15 outs, or about 33% chance.



My final analysis is that I would have folded there, because I would think AJ as really the best case scenerio, and since that is only borderline profitable, I would think I was either a very small money favorite or a huge underdog considering how scary that 9h is to a pair of 8s there.

When I first saw the call, my thought was that it was an obvious bad call. However, looking at it more closely it appears that a case can be made that the call was only slightly wrong, and if you are for whatever reason putting him on a jack no heart, a reasonable read in that situation, it may have not been wrong at all seeing you were getting 3-1 odds to call the all in bet...

On the other hand I think Yahweh's all in semi-bluff on that scare card was a first class poker play, given the size of the pot and the stack sizes involved. These things are not won by meekness...

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Aoidoi
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Post by Aoidoi »

You know, I really missed on the flush and straight draws he might have had. Was fixating on a higher pair, figured that the jacks were most likely based on what might not even have been a correct line of thinking. Definately a lack of experience there.

Sad to say, I mostly called cause I figured he was pushing his big stack around and might have nothing (for some reason I was thinking he had been doing that, though it was Sam that pushed me out the hand before... heck, I'd have to go back through the thread to see if I was just off base there, too). I didn't really want to end up with 60 chips left right in the pack with Yahweh able to push everyone around with a huge chip lead, and basically figured the pot was big enough to risk it.

So I think that pretty well cinches it on the "lucky call." I think I gotta buy a poker book, every time I think I'm starting to get the odds down I realize I'm messing it up somehow. :)

Thanks for the discussion, RCC. A big reason I'm playing is to demonstrate to myself it's not as easy as it looks on the Poker World Tour (which I know intellectually but not viscerally) and to learn some of what it is I don't know. :)
"Skeptics," he said, "suffer from the skeptics' disease-- the problem of being right too often."
- Scott Adams, "God's Debris: A Thought Experiment"

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RCC
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Post by RCC »

Aoidoi wrote:You know, I really missed on the flush and straight draws he might have had. Was fixating on a higher pair, figured that the jacks were most likely based on what might not even have been a correct line of thinking. Definately a lack of experience there.

Sad to say, I mostly called cause I figured he was pushing his big stack around and might have nothing (for some reason I was thinking he had been doing that, though it was Sam that pushed me out the hand before... heck, I'd have to go back through the thread to see if I was just off base there, too). I didn't really want to end up with 60 chips left right in the pack with Yahweh able to push everyone around with a huge chip lead, and basically figured the pot was big enough to risk it.

So I think that pretty well cinches it on the "lucky call." I think I gotta buy a poker book, every time I think I'm starting to get the odds down I realize I'm messing it up somehow. :)

Thanks for the discussion, RCC. A big reason I'm playing is to demonstrate to myself it's not as easy as it looks on the Poker World Tour (which I know intellectually but not viscerally) and to learn some of what it is I don't know. :)
From what you are saying (minus not seeing the straight and flush draws) your thought process there seems on reasonably solid ground. If you suspect a possible bluff the call gets even more correct.

Mainly the timing of the all in with that specific card makes me run away to fight another day...

Be careful as to what poker book you buy. As I've mentioned before The Theory of Poker by David Sklansky is no doubt the best book to read to begin a solid theoretical understanding of the game. Once you have that you are far less vulnerable to a bad poker book as you can better identify flawed thinking.