Poker and skepticism

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RCC
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Poker and skepticism

Post by RCC »

Interesting article on randomness and how some poker players develop odd ideas...

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazin ... m_id=65558

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gnome
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Re: Poker and skepticism

Post by gnome »

RCC wrote:Interesting article on randomness and how some poker players develop odd ideas...

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazin ... m_id=65558
I think they're off the mark on the iPods... well, not iPods specifically as I don't have one... but I have a similar device (Creative Zen)

I haven't done a study yet (I'm thinking of doing one) but when I put it on shuffle, it definitely seems as if some songs have a tendency to show up early in the list, compared to others.

I think what I'll do is make a note of the first 20 song numbers, then start over, and repeat a lot. But how many trials before I can look at statistical significance...? Let's assume I start the test when I reach 1,000 songs.

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Aoidoi
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Post by Aoidoi »

I assume the iPod and such use a pseudo random number generator. It's entirely possible that whatever method they're using introduces some sort of bias into the "random" number generated. So your proposed test would be an interesting check of just how random it really is, and if your perception of it's randomness is accurate or selective recall.

As far as I know shuffling cards shouldn't have inbuilt biases if you're doing it right.

(sorry I haven't read the article. Pesky work. And pesky work firewall, too. :))
"Skeptics," he said, "suffer from the skeptics' disease-- the problem of being right too often."
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Loon
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Post by Loon »

Only moderately related, but in college, a friend of mine observed that every time he put Wish You Were Here in his 5CD changer and hit random, Have a Cigar would be in the first five songs. Every time.

Now, there may have been a bunch of confirmation bias going on here, and the sample size may have been too small for significance, but it did give me the idea that the device was using parameters from the CD for randomness (as opposed to the clock, which PCs seem to use)
I guess there he chose to err on the side of more votes. -[size=75]Grammatron[/size]