Fukushima one year on

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Rob Lister
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by Rob Lister » Sun Jun 17, 2012 6:24 pm

sparks wrote:
"I approve the plan because I have been assured of the government's safety efforts and because it will provide stability for our industries,........
Yea, Sky Daddy knows we can't let anything interfere with our profitability! And you just gotta love those government safety assurances too. :o
Safety assurances or no, lack of 'profitability' could doom [what's left of] the Japanese economy. Give it a few years and all the the nuke plants will be back online. And they'll build more. Coal doesn't make sense for Japan (since they have none of their own).

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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by sparks » Sun Jun 17, 2012 6:32 pm

Give it a few years and all the the nuke plants will be back online.
I can think of 4 of 'em that won't.
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by En folkefiende » Sun Jun 17, 2012 8:15 pm

sparks wrote:
Give it a few years and all the the nuke plants will be back online.
I can think of 4 of 'em that won't.
Probably 6, really.
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Rob Lister
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by Rob Lister » Thu Jun 28, 2012 11:31 am

jj wrote:
sparks wrote:
Give it a few years and all the the nuke plants will be back online.
I can think of 4 of 'em that won't.
Probably 6, really.
The vessels themselves are done-for, clearly, but the site will eventually be put back to nuclear use. It may be 20 years though. Meanwhile ...
(Newser) – After almost two months of doing without nuclear energy for the first time in nearly 40 years, Japan is planning to restart its first reactor this weekend, CNN reports. Nuclear power supplied almost a third of the country's electricity before last year's Fukushima disaster, but all 50 of the country's reactors have been offline for safety checks since early May. Despite public safety concerns, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has approved restarting two reactors in western Japan to avoid power shortages.

All but one of Japan's electric companies held shareholder meetings yesterday, and shareholders voted in favor of sticking with nuclear power, reports Reuters. "Nuclear energy is an important source of power that we will utilize," said the chief of Kansai Electric after his company's meeting. "There is absolutely no plan to scrap nuclear power." The cities of Osaka, Kyoto, and Kobe are major shareholders in the company, and their mayors urged the nation to shift away from nuclear power.
It really just boils down to there being no other choice.

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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by DrMatt » Thu Jun 28, 2012 1:10 pm

Shareholders want it, and they're the only ones who count.
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by Rob Lister » Thu Jun 28, 2012 1:25 pm

DrMatt wrote:Shareholders want it, and they're the only ones who count.
In this case, the shareholders include every man, women and child in that country that happens to use or need electricity ... or the products and industry that rely on it. Coal and NG are just not feasible long term options. Any 'renewable' options, outside some limited reliable hydro and geo, are laughable pipe dreams. Until someone figures Fusion out (can't be more than 50 more years :roll: ), fission is the only choice they have.

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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by DrMatt » Thu Jun 28, 2012 1:50 pm

Rob Lister wrote:
DrMatt wrote:Shareholders want it, and they're the only ones who count.
In this case, the shareholders include every man, women and child in that country that happens to use or need electricity ... or the products and industry that rely on it. Coal and NG are just not feasible long term options. Any 'renewable' options, outside some limited reliable hydro and geo, are laughable pipe dreams. Until someone figures Fusion out (can't be more than 50 more years :roll: ), fission is the only choice they have.
I think you have shareholders confused with stakeholders.
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by Rob Lister » Thu Jun 28, 2012 1:57 pm

DrMatt wrote:
Rob Lister wrote:
DrMatt wrote:Shareholders want it, and they're the only ones who count.
In this case, the shareholders include every man, women and child in that country that happens to use or need electricity ... or the products and industry that rely on it. Coal and NG are just not feasible long term options. Any 'renewable' options, outside some limited reliable hydro and geo, are laughable pipe dreams. Until someone figures Fusion out (can't be more than 50 more years :roll: ), fission is the only choice they have.
I think you have shareholders confused with stakeholders.
Intentionally so, Matt.

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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by Anaxagoras » Thu Jul 05, 2012 1:13 pm

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/new ... story.html

“What must be admitted — very painfully – is that this was a disaster ‘Made in Japan,’ ” investigation Chairman Kiyoshi Kurokawa wrote in the introduction to the report. “Its fundamental causes are to be found in the ingrained conventions of Japanese culture: our reflexive obedience; our reluctance to question authority; our devotion to ‘sticking with the program’; our groupism; and our insularity.”
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed Jul 18, 2012 3:28 am

sparks wrote:How many dead? Patience Lister, patience. We're just getting on a good roll with this radioactive slag heap. Give it another decade or 100.

Fuck me running uphill backwards at full speed. :cry:
Now there's an estimate:

They put the worst-case scenario in the headline:

Fukushima Radiation May Cause 1,300 Cancer Deaths: Study

But the best estimate is much lower:
The best estimates of cancer cases resulting from the Fukushima disaster is 180, and range from 24 to 2,500, yesterday’s study said.

The most likely number of cancer deaths is 130 and estimated to range from 15 to 1,300, the authors said, adding that the ranges reflect uncertainties about emissions and the methods the researchers used to calculate their impact.

“They have demonstrated there are no significant public health effects” from radiation exposure, said Evan Douple, associate chief of research at the Hiroshima Radiation Effects Research Foundation. “Their best estimate of 130 cancer deaths in Japan would be lost in the background wash of the hundreds of thousands of cancer deaths that would be occurring in the million or so people in the population exposed.”
If it's only 130 extra deaths it would be pretty much impossible to detect because that's well within the error bar of the total number of expected cases of cancer.
Basically, you can round it down to "no significant public health effects" as in "not statistically significant."

ETA: Just for perspective:
Air pollution
The World Health Organization states that 2.4 million people die each year from causes directly attributable to air pollution, with 1.5 million of these deaths attributable to indoor air pollution.[16] "Epidemiological studies suggest that more than 500,000 Americans die each year from cardiopulmonary disease linked to breathing fine particle air pollution. . ."[17] A study by the University of Birmingham has shown a strong correlation between pneumonia related deaths and air pollution from motor vehicles.[18] Worldwide more deaths per year are linked to air pollution than to automobile accidents.[citation needed] Published in 2005 suggests that 310,000 Europeans die from air pollution annually.[citation needed] Causes of deaths include aggravated asthma, emphysema, lung and heart diseases, and respiratory allergies.[citation needed] The US EPA estimates that a proposed set of changes in diesel engine technology (Tier 2) could result in 12,000 fewer premature mortalities, 15,000 fewer heart attacks, 6,000 fewer emergency room visits by children with asthma, and 8,900 fewer respiratory-related hospital admissions each year in the United States.[citation needed]
Although estimates for Japan are not given, a rough estimate based on US rates adjusted for Japan's population would be ca. 200,000 deaths/year due to air pollution.


130 extra deaths due to cancer spread out over multiple decades is like nothing compared to that.
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by Doctor X » Wed Jul 18, 2012 7:55 am

Sort of like plane crashes--the event amplifies the actual figure. Not that that excuses the accidents.

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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by sparks » Thu Jul 19, 2012 3:01 am

Anax quoted thusly:
But the best estimate is much lower:
This assumes nothing else goes wrong, of course. If one of those spent fuel pools goes dry the fuel will burn and when it does we'll be in for some fun shit then my friend.
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by Rob Lister » Thu Jul 19, 2012 10:25 am

sparks wrote:Anax quoted thusly:
But the best estimate is much lower:
If one of those spent fuel pools goes dry the fuel will burn and when it does we'll be in for some fun shit then my friend.
Is there some situation that prevents them from keeping the pools full? Pools for spent fuel rods are a standard feature of any nuclear reactor.

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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by sparks » Fri Jul 20, 2012 10:34 pm

Yep: They are located high up in the structure to make access to and from the reactor easier. The structures are already compromised by the quake and the story goes that one more good one will render one or more of them incapable of holding water regardless of how much you're able to dump into them. However, in spite of the mess they've got to deal with there, they must have figured out a way to keep them topped up for the time being otherwise we'd have heard all about the fire by now.
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by DrMatt » Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:12 am

Oh, good. They just need to keep 'em topped for the next 50000 years.
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by Anaxagoras » Mon Jul 23, 2012 7:38 am

Spent fuel is typically kept in cooling pools for 10 years after being removed from a reactor. By then its heat production is too small to melt anything, and it can be placed in concrete casks for indefinite storage.
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed Jul 25, 2012 1:12 pm

Amid energy shortages, a record first-half trade deficit for Japan
TOKYO — Japan posted its biggest first-half trade deficit on record, according to government figures released Wednesday, highlighting the economic consequences as this nuclear-averse country imports fossil fuels to meet its energy needs.

The Ministry of Finance reported a 2.92 trillion yen (or $37.3 billion) trade deficit, which reflected not only Japan’s surging need for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), but also weakened exports to slumping markets like Europe and China.

The world’s third-largest economy has averted economic crisis this year largely because of a spike in domestic demand, spurred by reconstruction of the earthquake- and tsunami-devastated northeast.

But long term, Japan faces some troubling challenges: Its famed exporters — automakers and tech giants — are pinched by a global economic slowdown. Meanwhile, the country’s sustained wariness of nuclear energy has led to record imports of fossil fuels, which arrive here on hulking tankers and help prevent the nightmare scenario of blackouts during the sweltering summer.

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has lobbied for months about the need to resume use of nuclear power, which once supplied a third of Japan’s energy. For now, though, only two of the nation’s 50 atomic reactors are online. Many regions face energy-saving targets, handcuffing manufacturers.
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by DrMatt » Wed Jul 25, 2012 2:14 pm

Hamme has the answer to your problems.
Slave labor.
Nothing quite like it to pick up an economy.
And per him, slaves should kiss the ground on which they are enslaved, for rescuing them from the horrors of whatever slavery is supposed to rescue them from.
He'll go first.
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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by hammegk » Wed Jul 25, 2012 9:47 pm

Change your Depends, fuckwit.

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Re: Fukushima one year on

Post by Anaxagoras » Sat Aug 18, 2012 4:26 am

The Panic Over Fukushima
Denver has particularly high natural radioactivity. It comes primarily from radioactive radon gas, emitted from tiny concentrations of uranium found in local granite. If you live there, you get, on average, an extra dose of .3 rem of radiation per year (on top of the .62 rem that the average American absorbs annually from various sources). A rem is the unit of measure used to gauge radiation damage to human tissue.

The International Commission on Radiological Protection recommends evacuation of a locality whenever the excess radiation dose exceeds .1 rem per year. But that's one-third of what I call the "Denver dose." Applied strictly, the ICRP standard would seem to require the immediate evacuation of Denver.

It is worth noting that, despite its high radiation levels, Denver generally has a lower cancer rate than the rest of the United States. Some scientists interpret this as evidence that low levels of radiation induce cancer resistance; I think it is more likely that lifestyle differences account for the disparity.

. . .

The "hot spots" in Japan that frightened many people showed radiation at the level of .1 rem, a number quite small compared with the average excess dose that people happily live with in Denver.
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