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Post by Anaxagoras »

This is not entirely new (you've probably heard about "foxes" and "hedgehogs" before) but I thought it was an interesting read. In general it seems that "experts" are no better at predicting the future than "psychics", which we all know are full of shit. But even people who are supposedly the world's leading authority on something or other are really bad at predicting the future even in their own field of expertise. They also do not change their views based on failed predictions, but find excuses rather than consider that their ideas might be flawed. OTOH, "foxes" who know a little bit about lots of different things are better at making predictions than "hedgehogs" who are experts in one thing, and also more open to the idea that their assumptions were wrong when they prove to be wrong, and adopting new ideas.

The Peculiar Blindness of Experts
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
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Re: Experts

Post by Doctor X »

It is a process, not an attribute, Anax.

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Re: Experts

Post by gnome »

Screw you, I got my Skeptictm trophy in 1997 and you can't take it away!
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Re: Experts

Post by robinson »

I saw that linked on Twitter and read it. Twice. It seems to confirm what history shows about experts and predictions. Anybody who has lived long enough probably knows experts are usually full of shit when it comes to predicting.

Unless you are an expert.
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