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Post by Anaxagoras » Wed May 08, 2019 1:35 am

This is not entirely new (you've probably heard about "foxes" and "hedgehogs" before) but I thought it was an interesting read. In general it seems that "experts" are no better at predicting the future than "psychics", which we all know are full of shit. But even people who are supposedly the world's leading authority on something or other are really bad at predicting the future even in their own field of expertise. They also do not change their views based on failed predictions, but find excuses rather than consider that their ideas might be flawed. OTOH, "foxes" who know a little bit about lots of different things are better at making predictions than "hedgehogs" who are experts in one thing, and also more open to the idea that their assumptions were wrong when they prove to be wrong, and adopting new ideas.

The Peculiar Blindness of Experts
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare

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Re: Experts

Post by Doctor X » Wed May 08, 2019 8:44 am

It is a process, not an attribute, Anax.

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Re: Experts

Post by gnome » Thu May 16, 2019 2:12 am

Screw you, I got my Skeptictm trophy in 1997 and you can't take it away!
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Re: Experts

Post by robinson » Wed May 22, 2019 10:39 pm

I saw that linked on Twitter and read it. Twice. It seems to confirm what history shows about experts and predictions. Anybody who has lived long enough probably knows experts are usually full of shit when it comes to predicting.

Unless you are an expert.
You never know what's going to happen, then some shit happens nobody saw coming, then later somebody says they knew it was coming, then some new shit happens nobody saw coming, rinse and repeat