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Post by Anaxagoras » Wed May 08, 2019 1:35 am

This is not entirely new (you've probably heard about "foxes" and "hedgehogs" before) but I thought it was an interesting read. In general it seems that "experts" are no better at predicting the future than "psychics", which we all know are full of shit. But even people who are supposedly the world's leading authority on something or other are really bad at predicting the future even in their own field of expertise. They also do not change their views based on failed predictions, but find excuses rather than consider that their ideas might be flawed. OTOH, "foxes" who know a little bit about lots of different things are better at making predictions than "hedgehogs" who are experts in one thing, and also more open to the idea that their assumptions were wrong when they prove to be wrong, and adopting new ideas.

The Peculiar Blindness of Experts
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare

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Re: Experts

Post by Doctor X » Wed May 08, 2019 8:44 am

It is a process, not an attribute, Anax.

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Re: Experts

Post by gnome » Thu May 16, 2019 2:12 am

Screw you, I got my Skeptictm trophy in 1997 and you can't take it away!
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
--Soldier, TF2