Climate Change/Global Warming Hysteria thread

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Anaxagoras
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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming/AGW featuring graphs

Post by Anaxagoras »

corplinx wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:52 am


Michael Moore makes you hate the Green Industry
I finally had time to watch. I do recommend although the second half gets kinda dodgy and seems to be a bit of a hatchet job. Rather a bummer, I must say, but it's an eye-opener for sure, about what passes for "green energy".

For a Youtube video it has excellent production value. At the beginning there's footage of the earth from the ISS which is well worth seeing.

Feels a bit like the movie Koyaanisqatsi.
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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming/AGW featuring graphs

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Rob Lister wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 7:49 am
Anaxagoras wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 6:02 am
National Review review's Michael Moore's new movie:

https://news.yahoo.com/michael-moore-em ... 42176.html
That was a worthy article, but I have issues with the passivity of the last para; the conclusion, so to speak.
Ideas have consequences. If the idea is accepted that the world faces a fundamental crisis of overpopulation, there will be men of action prepared to do something about it. Compared with the havoc they inflict, green-energy swindles will be the least of our problems.
Emphasis mine.

Accepted by whom? What will they do? Havoc how?

There is no doubt in my mind that overpopulation is a crisis and that letting that crisis self-regulate to its own solution is begging for a bigger crisis, so I want that havoc to which he refers better defined.

The movie's premise--or the reviewer's interpretation of it--is a strawman. Virgin forests are not being devastated for the production of energy to any meaningful extent, they're being harvested for their lumber and stripped to grow food; there aren't enough caves to go around and one can't eat a tree.

To the extent AGW is a problem, it is trivially solved: 90% nuclear, 20% NG, 20% wind*.

To the extent overpopulation is a problem, I have no solution that won't stack corpses like cordwood from horizon to horizon.

* From an engineering standpoint, ideally you want 150% so private solar will suffice for the shortfall so long as the utilities are not forced into buying what they don't need, much less paying retail for it.
Food is energy. It's the gasoline we use to power our bodies.

I believe there is a humane solution to overpopulation though. Family planning and feminism. Not all women need to be baby-making factories. They can have careers instead. (Better than straight up murdering people. Just convince them to not reproduce, and provide the contraceptives that help.)
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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming/AGW featuring graphs

Post by ed »

Anaxagoras wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 10:59 am


I believe there is a humane solution to overpopulation though. Family planning and feminism. Not all women need to be baby-making factories. They can have careers instead. (Better than straight up murdering people. Just convince them to not reproduce, and provide the contraceptives that help.)
They have been convinced. Ergo the most productive and contributory segments of world society reproduce at non-sustainable levels whereas the uneducated and poor reproduce like bunnies.

What could go wrong?
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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming/AGW featuring graphs

Post by gnome »

Rob Lister wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 10:43 am
gnome wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 10:39 am
I had been under the impression that successful modernization tends to restrain birth rates... is that no longer considered true, or not enough? That sounds like a reasonable solution to me.
I think it is very true, but nowhere close to enough. Even at only 7.5 billion, we're already swimming in our own filth, and we're making more a hell of a lot faster than we're cleaning it up.

Maybe not 'us' personally ... and therein might lie the problem: the folks most adept to solving the issue (money, resources) don't really live or even see the issue (our side of the fence is very green).

But like I said, I have no solution. Other than a nuclear one. The bad nuclear, in this case.
I guess I am forever optimistic. Solving waste issues seems like more of an innovation and organizational issue. That is no small matter at all, but it is very different in character than an inevitable population growth that overwhelms any possible solution. To underscore why I don't think population is a losing battle:

https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate

I think we are approaching a rough equilibrium in that respect.
Last edited by gnome on Fri May 01, 2020 11:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming/AGW featuring graphs

Post by Rob Lister »

Anaxagoras wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 10:59 am
Just convince them to not reproduce, and provide the contraceptives that help.)
That is the successful modernization that gnome spoke of. But in my mind ...
Lister wrote:There is no doubt in my mind that overpopulation is a crisis and that letting that crisis self-regulate to its own solution is begging for a bigger crisis
...it is the self-regulation I spoke of before. Way too little, way too late. I won't--and maybe you either--live long enough to see the problem come to fruition, so there is that bright side.

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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming/AGW featuring graphs

Post by corplinx »

Anaxagoras wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 10:59 am
Rob Lister wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 7:49 am
Anaxagoras wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 6:02 am
National Review review's Michael Moore's new movie:

https://news.yahoo.com/michael-moore-em ... 42176.html
That was a worthy article, but I have issues with the passivity of the last para; the conclusion, so to speak.
Ideas have consequences. If the idea is accepted that the world faces a fundamental crisis of overpopulation, there will be men of action prepared to do something about it. Compared with the havoc they inflict, green-energy swindles will be the least of our problems.
Emphasis mine.

Accepted by whom? What will they do? Havoc how?

There is no doubt in my mind that overpopulation is a crisis and that letting that crisis self-regulate to its own solution is begging for a bigger crisis, so I want that havoc to which he refers better defined.

The movie's premise--or the reviewer's interpretation of it--is a strawman. Virgin forests are not being devastated for the production of energy to any meaningful extent, they're being harvested for their lumber and stripped to grow food; there aren't enough caves to go around and one can't eat a tree.

To the extent AGW is a problem, it is trivially solved: 90% nuclear, 20% NG, 20% wind*.

To the extent overpopulation is a problem, I have no solution that won't stack corpses like cordwood from horizon to horizon.

* From an engineering standpoint, ideally you want 150% so private solar will suffice for the shortfall so long as the utilities are not forced into buying what they don't need, much less paying retail for it.
Food is energy. It's the gasoline we use to power our bodies.

I believe there is a humane solution to overpopulation though. Family planning and feminism. Not all women need to be baby-making factories. They can have careers instead. (Better than straight up murdering people. Just convince them to not reproduce, and provide the contraceptives that help.)
Didn't milton friedman say any virtuous effort will get taken over by industrialists?

Can't make billions off nuclear power apparently.


And anti-science loonies in Nevada deep sixed Yucca mountain.

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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming/AGW featuring graphs

Post by robinson »

Almost half of the fossil fuels used each day

Which is really big number

Is used to grow, process, ship, store, prepare and cook food
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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming/AGW featuring graphs

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The growing part is the largest part

Fossil fuels are how we have so much fertilizer
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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming/AGW featuring graphs

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In "Gateway" by Frederick Pohl, a near-future scenario (that is, near-future at the time of the book's 1977 authorship, which probably means 1996 or something) has the need for food on Earth so great that fossil fuels, oil especially, are being converted directly into synthetic food. The narrator snarks on how people used to waste it by sticking it into vehicles and burning it up.
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming/AGW featuring graphs

Post by Abdul Alhazred »

gnome wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 5:44 pm
In "Gateway" by Frederick Pohl, a near-future scenario (that is, near-future at the time of the book's 1977 authorship, which probably means 1996 or something) has the need for food on Earth so great that fossil fuels, oil especially, are being converted directly into synthetic food. The narrator snarks on how people used to waste it by sticking it into vehicles and burning it up.
I remember that one.

Also the worst Freudian pun about fellatio EVAR! :coolspecs:
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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming/AGW featuring graphs

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I wonder if the TV series will ever happen
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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming/AGW featuring graphs

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Lethal levels of heat and humidity are gripping global ‘hot spots’ sooner than expected
From the shores of the Persian Gulf to the foothills of Mexico’s Sierra Madre Occidental mountains, hot weather is reaching levels humans can’t endure. An analysis of 4 decades of data from thousands of weather stations shows that a handful of hot spots around the globe are experiencing a potentially lethal mix of heat and humidity—something most of these places weren’t expected to experience until midcentury.

“Previous studies projected that this would happen several decades from now, but this shows it’s happening right now,” says Colin Raymond, a postdoctoral researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory who led the study.

Hot weather is already lethal. A 2003 heat wave, for example, killed more than 70,000 people in Europe, when outdoor temperatures reached more than 40°C. But it’s not just the heat that kills. Humidity is deadly when it prevents the evaporation of sweat—a remarkably efficient way for the human body to cool itself. To measure the effects of heat plus humidity, scientists use wet bulb temperatures—the lowest temperature to which air can be cooled via evaporation.

At wet bulb temperatures above 35°C, researchers estimate that even fit people will overheat and potentially die within 6 hours. Although that temperature might seem low, it equates to almost 45°C at 50% humidity, and what it would feel like 71°C using the U.S. National Weather Service heat index. In the heat wave that ravaged Europe, wet bulb temperatures hit 28°C.

Climate change will likely make these conditions more common in places such as southwest Asia, India, and China, researchers say. But their models estimate temperatures for relatively large swaths of land. Likewise, analyses of past weather data assess conditions over grids of more than 700 square kilometers, potentially missing localized spikes.

Raymond wondered whether that might obscure specific hot spots where geography and weather are already conspiring to create intolerable conditions. To find out, he and his colleagues combed through 39 years of hourly data from weather stations on six continents, dating back to 1979.

They discovered a handful of individual spots—including shorelines along the Persian Gulf and river valleys in India and Pakistan—had crossed the 35°C wet bulb threshold, though only for an hour or two at a time. And in 2017, wet bulb conditions topped 30°C 1000 times—more than double the number in 1979, they write today in Science Advances.

Weather stations in several other places stood out. They include Mexican towns near the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of California, and the coastal city of San Francisco in Venezuela. Areas in the Caribbean, West Africa, and southern China also had extreme readings. Weather stations in these places recorded approximately 1000 incidents registering at 31°C, while the wet bulb temperature broke 33°C about 80 times, according to the researchers.
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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming/AGW featuring graphs

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Of course the doom sayers (who might be right btw) are trying to promote the warming story. The timing is bad. Coldest ever records are happening
But you won’t see them on TV



I checked the deadly heat “story” and of course it starts looking at data from 1979, a cherry picking that is rampant amongst alarm ringers

Meanwhile in the real


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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming/AGW featuring graphs

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In a world of science, where the goal is to figure shit out, a blizzard in May would be a big story
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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming/AGW featuring graphs

Post by gnome »

Individual anomalies are not particularly significant to evaluating a trend.
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming/AGW featuring graphs

Post by Abdul Alhazred »

gnome wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 4:54 pm
Individual anomalies are not particularly significant to evaluating a trend.
You say that, but you're not running for office. 8)
Last edited by Abdul Alhazred on Sun May 10, 2020 12:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming Hysteria thread

Post by robinson »

“Can't make billions off nuclear power apparently.”



That is an amazing insight


But you can lose many many billions in an instant
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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming Hysteria thread

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♪ ♫ ♩ ♬ "

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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming Hysteria thread

Post by robinson »

Here’s why it just won’t matter to an alarmists. And this is not rhetoric, it actually will not matter.


Using GISS data, which is adjusted to make the present warmer, it’s still evident the AGW theory is wrong. BGWT Predicts the most warming will be in the coldest months.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
65D4BA32-36A0-4E96-8384-99ED62907DB7.png
The alarmists will counter that’s too short of a trend.
A0D23F56-3FD1-467D-8144-D79DCFB44094.png
Then they will say “yeah but globally!”, which is why it just doesn’t matter. It’s not a scientific discussion, it’s just not.
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Re: Climate Change/Global Warming Hysteria thread

Post by Hotarubi »

Needs a better graph and more science.
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