The prognosis

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ed
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The prognosis

Post by ed »

I am going to lay out a straw man scenario for the progression of this disease. Please fix/ammend as necessary. Dates and rates are somewhat WAGs so fix but provide a reference.

1. The entire population of the country will be exposed to the disease within ~ 1 year (WAG)
2. Of these, 50% will be asymptomatic (Brit study)
3. Within 3 weeks of exposure symptoms, if they are going to appear, will appear.
4. 80% of people with symptoms will not really require medical care. Unless they are pussys.
5. 10% of the population will be sick, really sick. Dr and/or hospitals
6. 2% of the population will die
7. it is unclear what the demographic distribution of deaths will be. "Old" seems to be confounded with "sick with other things". Something other than a Dewey the Dunce analysis is called for. There should be enough data.


... some additional observations

A. If you are sick with "something" (not clear what the extent of this is ) AND you get sick (not clear if a preexisting condition increases likelihood of showing symptoms or just likelihood of death) you are a goner like approaching 100%
B. Chicks are more likely to be immune. Evidentially this is known (?) in epidemiology circles. TRUE???? Something about the xx chromosome imparting greater resistance to infection.
C. Impact of environmental temperature and other factors are unknown
About that stereo

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Rob Lister
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Re: The prognosis

Post by Rob Lister »

I think all of that is reasonable. Number 5 is probably closer to 5%.

Image

But that's still the real kicker.

80% (your number 4) of the 50% (your number 2) that show symptoms is 120 million.

5% of 120 million is 6 million.

How many fully staffed beds do we have?

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Anaxagoras
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Re: The prognosis

Post by Anaxagoras »

ed wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:35 pm
5. 10% of the population will be sick, really sick. Dr and/or hospitals
6. 2% of the population will die
If that's true, that's 33 million really sick people who need hospital care. Spread out over a year, but it's a big hump somewhere in the middle where half of them get sick over a 3 month period, or 5 million+ people per month who need hospital care. Are there 5 million hospital beds in the country? I think there's roughly 1 million hospital beds in the entire US. Maybe less.

2 percent of 327 million is about 6.5 million. In a typical year about 2.8 million people die in the US just in normal times. So add those fatalities to 6.5 million and you get 9.3 million deaths.

Hopefully your guess is on the pessimistic side.
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare

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ed
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Re: The prognosis

Post by ed »

You plan for worst case, generally.

I am also assuming that no drug that is a cure, palliative or preventative is forthcoming. That is probably pretty pessimistic.
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Anaxagoras
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Re: The prognosis

Post by Anaxagoras »

At this point the total number of confirmed cases still represents less than 0.01% of the world's population. I'm sure there are many more cases that haven't been detected yet, of course, but at the moment it's still less than half a million. Out of a world population of 7 billion.

The question is whether those numbers continue to increase logarithmically or whether various factors can slow it down. If it does, then we really ain't seen nothing yet. Just the first few raindrops of a coming deluge.
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare

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Fid
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Re: The prognosis

Post by Fid »

Well ain't we just ray of sunshine.

Off topic... ed's pecker is standard issue but he's not gay...really
... The stars were suns, but so far away they were just little points of light ... The scale of the universe suddenly opened up to me. It was a kind of religious experience. There was a magnificence to it, a grandeur, a scale which has never left me. Never ever left me.
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Pyrrho
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Re: The prognosis

Post by Pyrrho »

Image
Image
The flash of light you saw in the sky was not a UFO. Swamp gas from a weather balloon was trapped in a thermal pocket and reflected the light from Venus.

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Rob Lister
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Re: The prognosis

Post by Rob Lister »

That was funny. I like him.

My crystal ball sez we're going to see a baby boom in 9 months.