The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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xouper
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by xouper » Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:30 am

Luke T. wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:29 am
. . . Trillions have been lost as the Dow dives, thanks to Shutdown Tariff Man.
The Dow is higher now than it ever was under Obama, and by a bigly margin. Not to mention yesterday's record setting increase of over 1000 points in a single day.


https://www.google.com/search?tbm=fin&q ... j8ao0AE2:0

shuize
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by shuize » Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:35 pm

xouper wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:30 am

The Dow is higher now than it ever was under Obama, and by a bigly margin. Not to mention yesterday's record setting increase of over 1000 points in a single day.
No. That can't be right. I've been assured by the very smartest people that following Trump's election the Dow would never recover.

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WildCat
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by WildCat » Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:06 pm

Luke T. wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:25 am
The FY2015 deficit was $439 billion.

The FY2019 deficit is $1 trillion.

So, as I was saying, since taking power, the Republicans have DOUBLED the deficit.
It was the Republicans that caused the decline to where it was in 2015. The President doesn't control spending, the House does. And in January 2011 the GOP took control of the House.
Do you have questions about God?

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gnome
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by gnome » Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:23 pm

shuize wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:35 pm
xouper wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:30 am

The Dow is higher now than it ever was under Obama, and by a bigly margin. Not to mention yesterday's record setting increase of over 1000 points in a single day.
No. That can't be right. I've been assured by the very smartest people that following Trump's election the Dow would never recover.
Now, who does that sound like, that constantly is informed by some authority called "I've Heard People Say"?
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
--Soldier, TF2

shuize
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by shuize » Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:44 pm

gnome wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:23 pm
Now, who does that sound like that constantly is informed by some authority called "I've Heard People Say"?
Maybe you missed this post-election gem:
Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman wrote:It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover? Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear. Still, I guess people want an answer: If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/pro ... ic-fallout

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Abdul Alhazred
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:29 pm

The Dow != "the economy".

Not uncorrelated in a non-linear fashion, but just sayin' .

Massive profit taking is not necessarily a panic.
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Skeeve
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by Skeeve » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:09 pm

xouper wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:30 am
Luke T. wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:29 am
. . . Trillions have been lost as the Dow dives, thanks to Shutdown Tariff Man.
The Dow is higher now than it ever was under Obama, and by a bigly margin. Not to mention yesterday's record setting increase of over 1000 points in a single day.


https://www.google.com/search?tbm=fin&q ... j8ao0AE2:0
Funny about that. Trump is the only one who is pointing the finger at the FED...
So why the FED?
Ah...yea kicking up interest rates perhaps?

https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-fu ... ical-chart

It has climbed during the last two years....after remaining flat (at some value near zero) for most of Barry (no balls) Obams's reign so....
Then Skank Of America could start in...

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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by Grammatron » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:31 pm

Luke T. wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:55 pm
Since taking power, the Republicans have DOUBLED the deficit.

It was declining for several years, and then the Republicans took power and accelerated it.

For FY2019, Deficit Donald submitted the largest budget request in the history of the Universe. A full trillion dollars more than Obama spent in his worst year.

$4.407 trillion.

The next time someone tells you Republicans are all about small government and balanced budgets, just reach over and bitch slap them.

Hard.
I don't disagree with your premise, but the largest budget...everything was in 1940's during WWII where the country went balls deep into the deficit.

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Abdul Alhazred
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:42 pm

Historically the Fed raising interest rates a little is associated with pumping the economy, which is supposed to be a good thing.

I'm not saying that's a law of nature, but it occurs to me that the Fed might not really be engaging in deliberate sabotage.

And I'm not even a fan of the Federal Reserve system.
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gnome
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by gnome » Thu Dec 27, 2018 7:56 pm

My understanding is that (barring counterindicated circumstances) their default move is to kick up interest rates to mitigate inflation--with the understood side effect that it may trade off against employment rates. Common enough during growth, in order to calibrate the money supply. The question of whether to make deliberate adjustments is essentially the same question of whether to have the Fed as we know it right now.

If we are not questioning their very existence, the relevant question is whether they are making wise choices. I would rather consult economists than politicians on that question. Anyone of note weighed in?
"If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight! Sun Tzu said that, and I'd say he knows a little bit more about fighting than you do, pal, because he invented it, and then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then, he used his fight money to buy two of every animal on earth, and then he herded them onto a boat, and then he beat the crap out of every single one. And from that day forward any time a bunch of animals are together in one place it's called a zoo! (Beat) Unless it's a farm!"
--Soldier, TF2

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Anaxagoras
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by Anaxagoras » Fri Dec 28, 2018 12:28 am

The Fed is doing exactly what they're supposed to be doing according to conventional economic theory given the current economic indicators. Raising interest rates is just what they do to prevent inflation. If it looks like the economy is going bad, and inflation is below their target value, they will reverse course and start to lower them.
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare

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Witness
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by Witness » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:24 am

Luke T. wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:51 pm
A Republican Congressman, whose $174,000 Congressional salary is not being interrupted during the shutdown, said federal workers should have a financial buffer in the event of a shutdown during which they don't get paid.
Aw, come on, there are easy solutions:
Trump Administration Suggests Furloughed Workers Do Chores for Landlords to Help Pay Rent

The U.S. Office of Personnel Management on Thursday tweeted advice to furloughed federal workers on how to explain their precarious financial situation to creditors and landlords—including one sample letter with the suggestion that they offer to perform chores in exchange for rent payments. “I will keep in touch with you to keep you informed about my income status and I would like to discuss with you the possibility of trading my services to perform maintenance (e.g. painting, carpentry work) in exchange for partial rent payments,” one sample letter to a landlord read. The agency also urged workers to “please consult with your personal attorney” for any required legal advice amid the partial government shutdown, during which nearly 800,000 workers have either been furloughed or asked to work without pay.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-adm ... p-pay-rent

Work for your landlord, consult with your personal attorney, nothing to it. :mrgreen:

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Abdul Alhazred
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:37 am

More let 'em eat cake suggestions. But at this point I think it's genuine stupidity more than any of their other evil qualities. If they were smart they'd just blame the Democrats for being recalcitrant and not try to be "helpful".

It is very likely there will be back pay after it is over (just like all those other times).

Interestingly, I got a letter from my bank offering cheap credit to laid off federal employees. Creepily predatory, but it does indicate confidence that they will be paid back soon.
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Witness
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by Witness » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:03 am

Yup, stupidity is always the null hypothesis. With some admixture of contempt, or just totally out of touch?

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Abdul Alhazred
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:06 am

All of the above, and hypocrisy too.

Stupidity isn't an alternative hypothesis to evil.

It's more a question of which of various characteristics informs their behavior the most.
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xouper
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by xouper » Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:08 pm

Luke T. wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:29 am
The longest bull run in history which had eight years of momentum behind it has been turned around. Trillions have been lost as the Dow dives, thanks to Shutdown Tariff Man.
Some people might say you are "thanking" the wrong guy.

For example:
The Fed Must Repeal Its Disastrous Rate Increases
By Stephen Moore & Alfredo Ortiz
December 28, 2018

With the stock market falling another 8 percent in the wake of the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates earlier this month, it's now clear that the biggest threat to the Trump economic boom is the Fed itself.

At a time of strong growth, wage gains, and record low unemployment, Fed policies have created one of the most dangerous deflation cycles in decades. . . . with most of that decline following the two disastrous rate increases, first in September and then another one a week before Christmas.

The jury has rendered its verdict with a massive stock sell-off. This is what in sports is called an "unforced error." Americans have lost well over $4 trillion in wealth . . .

A very strong real economy was created by President Trump’s tax and deregulation policies, which are running at cross purposes with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's anti-growth monetary policy. . . .

By its action, the Fed threatens to crater the best economic performance in decades. The economy in 2018 is on pace to grow at more than 3 percent for the first time since 2005 and more than 50 percent faster than the average economic growth over the Obama years.

Workers are the big beneficiaries. The unemployment rate is at a half-century low of 3.7 percent for the year. And rock bottom unemployment rates extend to all demographics, with black, Hispanic, and female rates all at historic lows. There are currently more than 7 million available jobs, which this year surpassed the number of Americans looking for work for the first time in recorded history. Wages are growing above 3 percent for the first time in a decade -- with the biggest gains for those at the bottom of the ladder.

What is the problem that the Fed is trying to "fix"?

There isn’t one. Instead, the Fed is the problem. . . .

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Anaxagoras
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by Anaxagoras » Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:15 pm

Trump issues executive order freezing federal workers' pay in 2019
Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump issued an executive order Friday freezing federal workers' pay for 2019, following through on a proposal he announced earlier in the year.

The move, which nixes a 2.1% across-the-board pay raise that was set to take effect in January, comes as hundreds of thousands of federal employees are expecting to begin the new year furloughed or working without pay because of a partial government shutdown.

Trump told lawmakers he planned to scrap the 2019 pay bump for federal workers in August, saying the federal budget couldn't support it. In addition to the 2.1% pay increase, the executive order also cancels a yearly adjustment of paychecks based on the region of the country where workers are posted, called the "locality pay increase," that was due to take effect in January.
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare

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Giz
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by Giz » Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:36 pm

Anaxagoras wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:15 pm
Trump issues executive order freezing federal workers' pay in 2019
Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump issued an executive order Friday freezing federal workers' pay for 2019, following through on a proposal he announced earlier in the year.

The move, which nixes a 2.1% across-the-board pay raise that was set to take effect in January, comes as hundreds of thousands of federal employees are expecting to begin the new year furloughed or working without pay because of a partial government shutdown.

Trump told lawmakers he planned to scrap the 2019 pay bump for federal workers in August, saying the federal budget couldn't support it. In addition to the 2.1% pay increase, the executive order also cancels a yearly adjustment of paychecks based on the region of the country where workers are posted, called the "locality pay increase," that was due to take effect in January.
Good

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WildCat
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by WildCat » Sat Dec 29, 2018 4:47 pm

xouper wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:08 pm
Some people might say you are "thanking" the wrong guy.

For example:
Workers are the big beneficiaries. The unemployment rate is at a half-century low of 3.7 percent for the year. And rock bottom unemployment rates extend to all demographics, with black, Hispanic, and female rates all at historic lows. There are currently more than 7 million available jobs, which this year surpassed the number of Americans looking for work for the first time in recorded history. Wages are growing above 3 percent for the first time in a decade -- with the biggest gains for those at the bottom of the ladder.

What is the problem that the Fed is trying to "fix"?

There isn’t one. Instead, the Fed is the problem. . . .
The only justification I've seen for the interest rate hikes is the Fed wants room to lower interest rates in a future recession... one which the Fed seems determnined to create through interest rate hikes. It's s vicious circle.

Inflation is low and steady, growth is at a manegeable rate, there's really no reason to "put the brakes on" with rate hikes.
Do you have questions about God?

you sniveling little right-wing nutter - jj

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Anaxagoras
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Re: The Stench Of Hypocrisy

Post by Anaxagoras » Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:06 am

WildCat wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 4:47 pm
xouper wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:08 pm
Some people might say you are "thanking" the wrong guy.

For example:
Workers are the big beneficiaries. The unemployment rate is at a half-century low of 3.7 percent for the year. And rock bottom unemployment rates extend to all demographics, with black, Hispanic, and female rates all at historic lows. There are currently more than 7 million available jobs, which this year surpassed the number of Americans looking for work for the first time in recorded history. Wages are growing above 3 percent for the first time in a decade -- with the biggest gains for those at the bottom of the ladder.

What is the problem that the Fed is trying to "fix"?

There isn’t one. Instead, the Fed is the problem. . . .
The only justification I've seen for the interest rate hikes is the Fed wants room to lower interest rates in a future recession... one which the Fed seems determnined to create through interest rate hikes. It's s vicious circle.

Inflation is low and steady, growth is at a manegeable rate, there's really no reason to "put the brakes on" with rate hikes.
There's also an argument that low interest rates, if held low for too long, create credit bubbles, like the one that led to the last financial crisis.

Too much lending at low interest rates, too much debt that debtors won't be able to repay if something like higher interest rates or a recession comes.

I don't know if you can really blame low interest rates for this, but I have heard that argument made. People always want someone to blame, someone to point the finger at when the economy goes bad, and the Fed is a favorite target.

I do find it curious that Trump wants to blame the guy that he himself chose for the job. If Powell's not the right man for the job, why didn't he choose someone else?

In reality, I think they are just doing what they think is right according to the current economic indicators. But there's always ways to second-guess.
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare