Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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Abdul Alhazred
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

Post by Abdul Alhazred »

Pyrrho wrote: Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:09 pm The article itself:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w
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robinson
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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The paper clearly states non symptom infected are not spreading it

Hmmm


Boy that’s not going to be accepted by the wokerati
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gnome
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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Help me out with this--why does this study find something different from so many other studies about presymptomatic transmission? Where's the disconnect?
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robinson
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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Because they used almost 10 million people for the study
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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My guess would be that China's strict measures resulted in a lower rate of virus carriers. Looking at the article...giving it my best shot here, Boss...
Stringent COVID-19 control measures were imposed in Wuhan between January 23 and April 8, 2020. Estimates of the prevalence of infection following the release of restrictions could inform post-lockdown pandemic management. Here, we describe a city-wide SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening programme between May 14 and June 1, 2020 in Wuhan. All city residents aged six years or older were eligible and 9,899,828 (92.9%) participated. No new symptomatic cases and 300 asymptomatic cases (detection rate 0.303/10,000, 95% CI 0.270–0.339/10,000) were identified. There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases. 107 of 34,424 previously recovered COVID-19 patients tested positive again (re-positive rate 0.31%, 95% CI 0.423–0.574%). The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan was therefore very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown.
The screening took place after the lockdowns were over. 300 asymptomatic cases in a group of 9,899,828 people. The authors conclude that "The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan was therefore very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown." which we can see is pretty much true based on the data.

The authors also report:
All asymptomatic positive cases, repositive cases and their close contacts were isolated for at least 2 weeks until the results of nucleic acid testing were negative. None of detected positive cases or their close contacts became symptomatic or newly confirmed with COVID-19 during the isolation period.
Further:
Previous studies have shown that asymptomatic individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus were infectious3, and might subsequently become symptomatic4. Compared with symptomatic patients, asymptomatic infected persons generally have low quantity of viral loads and a short duration of viral shedding, which decrease the transmission risk of SARS-CoV-25. In the present study, virus culture was carried out on samples from asymptomatic positive cases, and found no viable SARS-CoV-2 virus. All close contacts of the asymptomatic positive cases tested negative, indicating that the asymptomatic positive cases detected in this study were unlikely to be infectious.
And...
This study has several limitations that need to be discussed. First, this was a cross-sectional screening programme, and we are unable to assess the changes over time in asymptomatic positive and reoperative results.
There is much more of course and it is subject to discussion and interpretation. I don't know what the other studies are that they refer to, or how the data in those other studies was collected, etc., but IMHO is it premature to conclude from this paper that lockdowns and other precautions are needless.

One could just as easily argue that this shows that strict lockdown measures such as those imposed in China are very effective in throttling the spread of the virus, resulting in a very low number of asymptomatic carriers, and that post-lockdown adherence to protective behaviors further reduces the risk of exposure. Contrasting these results with the continuing surge of infections and hospital overloads in the United States indicates that lesser measures clearly do not "work" with the same efficiency as the strict measured imposed in China.

Also...the conclusion by the Twitter personality that spread of the virus by asymptomatic people is not a matter for concern and that lockdowns, etc. are not needed is an oversimplification that assumes that any given person is "asymptomatic" and is thus not contagious, and that he knows better than other experts and organizations. The asymptomatic people in this study may have been contagious previous to the assessment--the study does indicate that none of their close contacts were carriers--but again, they may have had it and cleared it. Thus it is a limitation to the analysis.

Imma wear a mask and stay home as much as possible, considering that infections continue to rise in my neck of the woods.
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ed
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

Post by ed »

Pyrrho wrote: Sat Nov 21, 2020 7:51 pm
Imma wear a mask and stay homo as much as possible
FIFY
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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I don’t care if the mask work or not I want people to have to keep wearing them. It keeps their fucking human goo that comes out of their mouth and nose from getting in my car.
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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robinson wrote: Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:41 pm I don’t care if the mask work or not I want people to have to keep wearing them. It keeps their fucking human goo that comes out of their mouth and nose from getting in my car.
Why don't you just use an extra piece of duct tape?
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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As a God, you shouldn’t have to ask
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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FWIW YMMV

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... tions.html
Coronavirus cases are rising in almost every U.S. state. But the surge is worst now in places where leaders neglected to keep up forceful virus containment efforts or failed to implement basic measures like mask mandates in the first place, according to a New York Times analysis of data from the University of Oxford.
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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gnome wrote: Sat Nov 21, 2020 7:11 pm Help me out with this--why does this study find something different from so many other studies about presymptomatic transmission? Where's the disconnect?
It said they were asymptomatic, not presymptomatic. This was after the lockdown. (The difference being that presymptomatic people later go on to develop symptoms. It means the early stage of an infection, while the virus is still cooking up and the immune system hasn't really started to kick in yet. Asymptomatic simply means any person who has no symptoms, and I'm pretty sure that none of these people later developed symptoms, or they would have mentioned that.

It's thought that people who have recovered and are no longer infectious may shed viral particles for some time even after they have fully recovered. These viral particles themselves are not active viruses that could result in a new infection in another host.
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Pyrrho
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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FDA has approved emergency use for two monoclonal antibodies for COVID-19 treatment.

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-a ... t-covid-19
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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Trends in County-Level COVID-19 Incidence in Counties With and Without a Mask Mandate — Kansas, June 1–August 23, 2020

Summary

What is already known about this this topic?

Wearing face masks in public spaces reduces the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

What is added by this report?

The governor of Kansas issued an executive order requiring wearing masks in public spaces, effective July 3, 2020, which was subject to county authority to opt out. After July 3, COVID-19 incidence decreased in 24 counties with mask mandates but continued to increase in 81 counties without mask mandates.

What are the implications for public health practice?

Countywide mask mandates appear to have contributed to the mitigation of COVID-19 transmission in mandated counties. Community-level mitigation strategies emphasizing use of masks, physical distancing, staying at home when ill, and enhanced hygiene practices can help reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e2.htm for the full paper.

How surprising! :roll:
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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The flash of light you saw in the sky was not a UFO. Swamp gas from a weather balloon was trapped in a thermal pocket and reflected the light from Venus.
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

Post by Pyrrho »

VRBAC meeting will be livestreamed on YouTube. Probably your best option. The webcast on the FDA site will be via Adobe Connect and will definitely hit capacity almost immediately.

FDA YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_giJ3 ... F1YfJdzzuQ

They should publish background materials by December 8.
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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Thanksgiving should be a hoot this year
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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Owl tends to be a bit gamy.
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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Covid-19: Sweden's herd immunity strategy has failed, hospitals inundated

It looked like Sweden might be vindicated for its Covid-19 strategy. But in the past few weeks, the country of 10 million has been smashed by the virus.

With three words, Sweden's King Carl Gustaf captured the panic engulfing his country as it backflips on a controversial herd immunity strategy and coronavirus case numbers explode.

On Instagram, he wrote, simply: "Hold on tight!"

The message is echoing around the Nordic breakaway nation which, up until now, has run a distinctly different race to its neighbours who locked down hard when the pandemic breached its borders.

It signals a complete reversal of a policy that allowed Swedes to govern themselves in the hopes that life could go on as normal.

Life did carry on as normal and it looked like Sweden might be vindicated for its strategy. But in the past few weeks, the country of 10 million has been smashed by Covid-19.

There were 6000 cases in a single day last week and hospitalisations are rising faster than anywhere else in Europe.

Image
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid- ... OT7WJOLSU/
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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AstraZeneca probes 'mistake' behind 90% COVID-19 vaccine efficacy
AstraZeneca is looking into why the accidental use of a half-dose primer vaccine appears to make its COVID-19 regimen more effective. The half-dose was given to some participants due to an error but is now AstraZeneca’s best hope of delivering efficacy comparable to mRNA vaccines.

Most participants in the late-phase analysis received a full dose of AZD1222. The efficacy in that group was 62%, well below the 90%-plus bar set by the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines. A far smaller cohort of subjects received a half-dose primer followed by a full-dose booster. The efficacy in that group was 90%. However, participants were never meant to receive a half-dose primer.

It was a mistake,” AstraZeneca Executive Vice President Mene Pangalos, Ph.D., told Reuters.

Pangalos said the mistake became apparent when researchers noticed the side effects seen in some participants were milder than expected. An attempt to explain the mild side effects revealed “they had underpredicted the dose of the vaccine by half,” Pangalos said. The participants went on to take a full booster shot.

The big efficacy question coming out of AstraZeneca’s data drop is whether the 90% figure is a true reflection of the protective power of the half-dose primer regimen. Only 2,741 subjects received the half-dose primer. Pfizer and Moderna enrolled more than 30,000 people in their phase 3 trials.

AstraZeneca was criticized for the data drop, with SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges saying “the suggestion by the inventors that the small sample given the lower priming dose was evidence of superior efficacy only brings discredit to the program.”

Ruud Dobber, president of AstraZeneca's U.S. business, told CNBC he expects regulators to focus on the half-dose regimen. The apparent efficacy of the half-dose regimen has led to speculation about why it would be more effective than giving two full doses. Dobber, who admitted the finding was “a little bit of a surprise to all of us,” offered one hypothesis.

“One of the potential hypotheses is that you’re priming the immune system with a relatively low dose or lower dose. As a consequence, the immune system is firing against this virus,” Dobber said.

It will take time to show whether the half-dose regimen really is far more effective and, if so, learn why. Dobber said AstraZeneca plans to do more research in the coming weeks to understand the mechanism.
So this half dose "primer" thing was entirely by accident. Funny, huh. It would be kinda cool if it turns out that an accident leads to a new scientific discovery. Progress often is made in directions that weren't anticipated.

The press release didn't mention that this was due to an accident. I'm still somewhat wary of the idea and wonder whether it might just be a statistical fluke, given the small sample size. But if it turns out to be real, maybe we will learn something interesting and useful about how to vaccinate. So many approaches to making a vaccine are being tried that we're bound to get some useful science out of this, as well as a means to end the current pandemic. Even failed attempts or those that are less efficacious may nonetheless yield important scientific findings.
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Re: Wuhan Flu Truth and Big Brother Narratives

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"vaccine" and "accident" should not be used in the same sentence.
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