Historic no seasonal flu season

[robinson]

Visual view





source CDC website

week 3 2021

week 3 2020

[robinson]

week 52 2019

17,000 positives

week 52 2020

100 positives

[robinson]

If covid wasn't a political matter, this story would be very much covered

But, instead, crickets

The woke don't believe in reporting what happens

[ed]

Why?

[Anaxagoras]

Could it be that the same measures used to slow the spread of covid are reducing the spread of flu as well?

Yes, clearly that's what's happening. Wearing masks, social distancing, etc. also work to prevent the spread of influenza.

https://www.woodtv.com/news/michigan/co ... ts-tracks/

I still remember early last year when people were saying that the flu was the bigger threat (than corona) because at that point more people had died from the flu in the US around this time last year.

[sparks]

Why?

Because you're dealing with a fool


And one can't help fools.

[robinson]

Why?

It's probably impossible to know at this point. I tend to not try and figure out or explain things that can't be known.

For example, I am not even sure what you are asking about. The lack of coverage of the matter? Or why it is happening?

Doesn't matter, neither is known at the present time.

Week 4 data is up, and man oh man, what I noticed early on is now really obvious. There are two different metrics shown on the weekly data, and this is important to try and understand what is happening.

"The U.S. Virologic Surveillance:
WHO and NREVSS collaborating laboratories, which include both public health and clinical laboratories located in all 50 states, Puerto Rico, Guam, and the District of Columbia, report to CDC the total number of respiratory specimens tested for influenza and the number positive for influenza by virus type. In addition, public health laboratories also report the influenza A subtype (H1 or H3) and influenza B lineage information of the viruses they test and the age or age group of the persons from whom the specimens were collected."


The Clinical Laboratories data
"Data from clinical laboratories (the percentage of specimens tested that are positive for influenza) are used to monitor whether influenza activity is increasing or decreasing."

The Public Health Laboratories data
"Data from public health laboratories are used to monitor the proportion of circulating viruses that belong to each influenza subtype/lineage."

So the Clinical data is about the numbers, while the Public health lab data is about the types. Tests sent to the Public Health Labs are most often a positive test, the number of positive results there has little to do with how the flu is spreading, it is about what type a flu test is showing.

The Clinical data is about tracking the spread, both regionally and the increase or decrease in numbers. I know, it's complicated. And far less fun that making snide remark or a snappy comeback. Deal with it.

[robinson]

So the week 4 data is up, and comparing to 2020, or 2019 week 4 data, something really fucking strange shows up. Like not a little strange, like impossibly strange. Like, mind fucking blowing shit, and at the moment, I'm trying to figure out the best way to present it. Not that most people will give a fuck, but as I always say, I do this for the enjoyment, I don't expect to change anyone or sway your opinion. That's a political thing, not a scientific or medical problem.

So here's the short version. In 2019 the Public health labs did 1,238 tests, got 774 positives, which the proceeded to sub type. The clinical labs has 6,042 positives, but the Public labs only tested 1,238. Remember, the Public labs are looking to break down what the types are. The 2019 total at week 4 was 27,221 tests done, to get the sub types.

2020 the numbers were similar, 1,801 samples, 1,129 positives, total for season 41,527 test, 21,184 postives.

2021,

Total test done for week 4,

9,102

with 3 positive samples


To compare.

2019 - 1,238 tests, .... 774 positives
2020 - 1,801 tests, .. 1,129 positive
2021 - 9,102 tests, ....... 3 positives

[robinson]

The big picture here, those Public health labs results are important, they use them to determine what the next batch of flu vaccines will be, what subtype to try and protect the public from, for the next season.

For example, The Data Cumulative since September 29, 2019 (week 40) was

41,527 total tests
21,184 positives

week 4 = week 40 of the season

Data Cumulative since September 30, 2018 (Week 40)

27,221 total tests
10,266 positives

Because the samples used to test are all positive, the Public health tests are done on positive samples. Which is why a large percentage are positive when they run the more advanced tests on samples

This year, 2021, the numbers are much much different, but to explain how this is so is complicated.

By week 40, there has been 276,200 samples sent to the Public labs

with 183 positives total

That's it, that's the number. Out of all 50 states, Puerto Rico, Guam, and the District of Columbia, the areas monitored, there are 137 positive test results. To analyze for subypes.

In 2019 it was 10,266 positives, in 2020 it was 21,184 positives

This year, 183

The Clinical labs, used to monitor the spread, the number of cases?

The total for the season (week 40) for 2020 was 107,343 total positive tests
The total for the season (week 40) for 2019 was - 45,190 total positive tests

2021 the number is 1,316

In a normal time, this would be considered nonsense data, it is simply not possible. These numbers are so far from normal there is something wrong with the data

Since the flu season in the Southern Hemisphere winter was the same, it's more probable there actually is basically no flu this year.

[robinson]

If you read all that, you are awesome. If you understand it, you a legend.

Since they are obviously sending far more samples to the Public health labs, and the numbers are still falling, what is there to do? Usually the number of positives sent to test for the subtypes at week 40 is 23,753 (2018), or 21,184 (2019), or 24,403 (2020), but this season (2021) it is 183

And this is with far more samples sent to test

Usually the week 40 total samples sent is 42,000 or 46,00 or 42,000

2021 it is 276,200 samples

The numbers are crazy

[robinson]

This graph tells the story in one image

[robinson]

Compare to

[robinson]

[Anaxagoras]

Someone at TOP, where there is also a thread on this topic, posted a link to the following article:

Opinion: The mystery of the flu-Covid 'twindemic' that never happened

They are calling it a "mystery" but I don't think it's too hard to figure out why.

Anyway:

Late last summer, many experts expressed concern that the illness and chaos caused by the Covid-19 pandemic might soon worsen as we entered flu season. Dubbed the "twindemic," pessimists foresaw a nightmarish overlap of the two viral diseases that could overwhelm the country and the world.

Pause here to follow the second link, which is to a New York Times article published on August 16th last summer.

As public health officials look to fall and winter, the specter of a new surge of Covid-19 gives them chills. But there is a scenario they dread even more: a severe flu season, resulting in a “twindemic.”

Even a mild flu season could stagger hospitals already coping with Covid-19 cases. And though officials don’t know yet what degree of severity to anticipate this year, they are worried large numbers of people could forgo flu shots, increasing the risk of widespread outbreaks.

The concern about a twindemic is so great that officials around the world are pushing the flu shot even before it becomes available in clinics and doctors’ offices. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been talking it up, urging corporate leaders to figure out ways to inoculate employees. The C.D.C. usually purchases 500,000 doses for uninsured adults but this year ordered an additional 9.3 million doses.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has been imploring people to get the flu shot, “so that you could at least blunt the effect of one of those two potential respiratory infections.”

In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been waging his own pro flu-shot campaign. Last month, he labeled people who oppose flu vaccines “nuts” and announced the country’s largest ever rollout of the shots. In April, one of the few reasons Australia allowed citizens to break the country’s strict lockdown was to venture out for their flu shots.

The flu vaccine is rarely mandated in the U.S. except by some health care facilities and nursery schools, but this month the statewide University of California system announced that because of the pandemic, it is requiring all 230,000 employees and 280,000 students to get the flu vaccine by November 1.

A life-threatening respiratory illness that crowds emergency rooms and intensive care units, flu shares symptoms with Covid-19: fever, headache, cough, sore throat, muscle aches and fatigue. Flu can leave patients vulnerable to a harsher attack of Covid-19, doctors believe, and that coming down with both viruses at once could be disastrous.

The 2019-20 flu season in the United States was mild, according to the C.D.C. But a mild flu season still takes a toll. In preliminary estimates, the C.D.C. says that cases ranged from 39 million to 56 million, resulting in up to 740,000 hospitalizations and from 24,000 to 62,000 flu-related deaths.

So the head of the CDC, and Dr. Fauci, were concerned about the upcoming flu season at the time. In hindsight, it seems rather obvious that the same measures we use to control the coronavirus would also help to contain the spread of the flu. I guess one might argue in their defense that it's their job to think in terms of worst-case scenarios, which may or may not actually happen.

Another possible explanation was offered:
Flu numbers are down this year due to higher vaccination rates amid COVID pandemic
Subheadline: "Experts say mask use and social distancing have also helped keep numbers low."

I think they have it backwards. The mask use and social distancing are the main reasons why flu is under control this year. Higher rates of vaccination for flu is probably only a marginal difference. (Occam's razor)

[robinson]

What is hard to see in the graph, is that week 4 (week 40 of the season) has 3 positive samples. Out of 9,102 tests. And none of them have had subtyped or Lineage performed. So there is zero data about what type of flu is being found, in the very few people who have the flu this year.

Usually they do around 2,000 tests, and get over 1000 positives to check the lineage or subtype. This year they did 9,102 test! And got 3 positives, none of which could be determined to find what kind it is.

This isn't historic, it's unheard of.

[robinson]

The lab data used to monitor the amount, to see if there is an increase or not, is quite unbelievable

Usually the progression of the season is obvious



This year is unheard of

Over half a million test reported



Instead of the usual 16% positives out of all the test

We see 0.2%

[robinson]

This is exactly what happened in the southern Hemisphere flu season already. There were so few positive tests to check for subtypes, this years vaccine was a complete guess. They have no idea what is circulating now. Except that there is very very little of it.

[robinson]

This of course brings up the very important question, one you might think would have been searched for, and answered long ago. (warning, the following is my commentary)

Where does the flu virus come from each year? (to be pedantic, where do the 9 different strains come from?)

What is the source? All summer long, no flu, no monitoring either. But every year, come the cold, cases start up, and spread, and somewhere between 85,000 and 1.5 million people die from it. (except the last 12 months, almost nobody died from the flu)

How is they just don't know the answer?

[robinson]

Just for information


The two main strains of seasonal flu, the ones that usually kill between 850,000 to 1,500,00 people each year, are the Asian flu (1957) and the Hong Kong flu (1969)

[robinson]

Both started in China

[asthmatic camel]

I'd imagine that infection rates have fallen for all communicable diseases.

[gnome]

But they're just arbitrarily labeling them all COVID for money and that's why, surely!

[robinson]

No way

The flu people are actually testing more people

They need the data to make the vaccine for next season


That was the point of all those tests, that resulted in only 3 cases of flu

[robinson]

The flu isn’t just a killer, it’s expensive and causes a lot of suffering each year

[robinson]

The horrific 2018 flu season was very bad

[robinson]

[robinson]

UK official source announces not a single case of the flu in England


Not one

For the entire flu season

Based on the latest numbers from the CDC


The US is on the same shape

[robinson]

week 6 2021 (week 12 of season)

Numbers still falling, testing still going up





Out if 13 positive tests (for the entire country), 3 could be subtyped. But only one turned out to be the flu