The Covid vaccines really do work

We are the Borg.
robinson
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by robinson »

Funny how the story changed
post-skeptic
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by post-skeptic »

robinson wrote: Sat Jan 15, 2022 5:25 am https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/health/e ... index.html


(CNN)Vaccine experts are warning the federal government against rushing out a coronavirus vaccine before testing has shown it's both safe and effective. Decades of history show why they're right.
Correct. If we dial the way back machine, the tone of things before the vaccine was actually released was "yeah, its experimental but nursing home patients are toast anyway".

What changed other than politicians pushing mass vaccination?
Doctor X
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Doctor X »

A pointless wall of text.

But are they not all?

– J.D.
post-skeptic
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by post-skeptic »

https://i.imgur.com/hABGFwq.jpg

Effective, notice the final tweet says "with covid ".
post-skeptic
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by post-skeptic »

Only statistics and bureaus could hide the obvious and have people believe it.

So sad how the boomers have become so dull and gullible in their old age and fear of death. The worst generation.
post-skeptic
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by post-skeptic »

https://i.imgur.com/uEHZ6VY.jpg

I love how the same people still disagreeing with the skeptics are basically just waiting for Pfizer to let the media confirm what they heard last week at any point.

Yet they still trust liars. Are boomers are mentally half there on a daily diet of pharma products and modern diet? Functionally senile not able to remember things? What's the real cause of this mass cognitive decline?
robinson
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by robinson »

Based on my interactions with people, it’s because a lot of people are really fucking stupid
robinson
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by robinson »

Also some of them are completely insane
post-skeptic
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by post-skeptic »

I love how they changed the definition of vaccinated to keep making scare stats. So now we have people fully vaccinated being reported unvaccinated to intentionally falsify the data to promote the dangerous boosters that cause negative efficacy.
Pyrrho
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Pyrrho »

https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 022-01-17/
Moderna Inc's vaccine candidate against the Omicron coronavirus variant will enter clinical development in the next few weeks and the company expects to be able to share data with regulators around March, CEO Stephane Bancel said on Monday.

"The vaccine is being finished ... it should be in the clinic in coming weeks. We are hoping in the March timeframe to be able to have data to share with regulators to figure out next steps," Bancel said at the World Economic Forum's virtual Davos Agenda conference.

Moderna is also developing a single vaccine that combines a booster dose against COVID-19 with its experimental flu shot. (https://reut.rs/3FAeyya)

Bancel said the best case scenario was the combined COVID/flu vaccine would be available by the fall of 2023, at least in some countries.

"Our goal is to be able to have a single annual booster so that we don't have compliance issues where people don't want to get two to three shots a winter."
Moderna's pipeline page shows that it's in the preclinical phase and has not yet entered clinical trials, so as he said, most likely won't see it approved until late 2023. His comments indicate an expectation of an endemic, which I think is already the case.

https://www.modernatx.com/pipeline

The pipeline includes numerous mRNA vaccines in development along with mRNA treatments for other conditions.

Pfizer's pipeline page gives a sleek overview with a PDF for download--it's a PDF of a PowerPoint deck which is harder to read than the Moderna pipeline page. A pity, because Pfizer's cool awesome web page design was doing so well. Unless you want details.

https://www.pfizer.com/science/drug-product-pipeline
Last edited by Pyrrho on Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
robinson
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by robinson »

Anaxagoras wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 1:50 pm Case example: Japan

Japan was a relative latecomer to getting people vaccinated, but it finally got its act together and the rate of vaccination here has caught up to that in the US and looks like it will end up being somewhat higher than in the US. So what about the infamous Delta variant? It was reported in early September that Delta is now the most prevalent variant in Japan. Nevertheless, we've seen new infections here drop rather dramatically over the last month. It peaked at somewhere over 20,000/day in late August, but has since fallen to roughly 2,500/per day over the last 7 days (Dashboard Here). Currently the effective reproduction number is at 0.6 (even lower in Tokyo, at 0.56). Deaths have also started to come down.

So what could account for this? I suggest it's the vaccinations. Will the effect wear off? Maybe, I guess we'll have to wait and see. Maybe this post won't age very well. But for now at least, it seems to be doing what it's supposed to.

Obviously this is not a scientific analysis, just the view of a layman, but it sure does look like it's working as it should here.



Here's the view of someone more qualified than me:

No, Vaccinated People Are Not ‘Just as Likely’ to Spread the Coronavirus as Unvaccinated People
This has become a common refrain among the cautious—and it’s wrong.

By Craig Spencer

About the author: Craig Spencer is an emergency-medicine physician and director of global health in emergency medicine at New York Presbyterian/Columbia University Medical Center.

For many fully vaccinated Americans, the Delta surge spoiled what should’ve been a glorious summer. Those who had cast their masks aside months ago were asked to dust them off. Many are still taking no chances. Some have even returned to all the same precautions they took before getting their shots, including avoiding the company of other fully vaccinated people.

Among this last group, a common refrain I’ve heard to justify their renewed vigilance is that “vaccinated people are just as likely to spread the coronavirus.”

This misunderstanding, born out of confusing statements from public-health authorities and misleading media headlines, is a shame. It is resulting in unnecessary fear among vaccinated people, all the while undermining the public’s understanding of the importance—and effectiveness—of getting vaccinated.

So let me make one thing clear: Vaccinated people are not as likely to spread the coronavirus as the unvaccinated. Even in the United States, where more than half of the population is fully vaccinated, the unvaccinated are responsible for the overwhelming majority of transmission.

I understand why people are confused. In April, after months of public-health experts cautiously promoting the merits of vaccination, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky cited new real-world data of the shots’ effectiveness to jubilantly proclaim that “vaccinated people do not carry the virus.” The CDC later walked back her comment, but headlines such as “It’s Official: Vaccinated People Don’t Transmit COVID-19” had already given many the impression that in addition to their remarkable protection against infection with the coronavirus, the shots also prevented them from passing the illness on to others.

Scientists and researchers objected, warning that there weren’t enough data to support such a proclamation. Their concerns were prescient. As Delta first took hold early this summer and then quickly spread, our collective relief turned into dejection.

An outbreak in Provincetown, Massachusetts—in which 74 percent of the 469 cases were in the fully vaccinated—forced the CDC to update its mask guidance and issue a sad and sobering warning: Vaccinated people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant can be just as contagious as unvaccinated people.

In the aftermath of the Provincetown announcement, many who had gotten their shots were confused about what the news meant for them, especially when headlines seemed to imply that vaccinated individuals are as likely to contract and transmit COVID-19 as the unvaccinated. But this framing missed the single most important factor in spreading the coronavirus: To spread the coronavirus, you have to have the coronavirus. And vaccinated people are far less likely to have the coronavirus—period. If this was mentioned at all, it was treated as an afterthought.

Despite concern about waning immunity, vaccines provide the best protection against infection. And if someone isn’t infected, they can’t spread the coronavirus. It’s truly that simple. Additionally, for those instances of a vaccinated person getting a breakthrough case, yes, they can be as infectious as an unvaccinated person. But they are likely contagious for a shorter period of time when compared with the unvaccinated, and they may harbor less infectious virus overall.
The effectiveness of the vaccines was probably oversold by some, who were so eager to promote them that they "got out over their skis". Exaggerating is never a good idea, even if you think it's for a good reason. But at the same time, they really do have a protective effect. It's just not perfect.
Might want to check that dashboard
robinson
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

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https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/co ... ?ismmark=a
Pyrrho
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

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Doctor X
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Doctor X »

But a crank site proved the vaccines CAUSE sickness!

But not new variants, unfortunately.

I blame sparks.

– J.D.
Pyrrho
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

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https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/21/heal ... icron.html
Booster shots of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines aren’t just preventing infections with the highly contagious Omicron variant — they’re also keeping infected Americans from ending up in the hospital, according to data published on Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The extra doses are 90 percent effective against hospitalization with the variant, the agency reported. Booster shots also reduced the likelihood of a visit to an emergency department or urgent care clinic. The extra doses were most effective against infection and death among Americans aged 50 and older, the data showed.
I think this is what they're referring to. I'm not sure. Long week, done for the day.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/ ... mm7104e3_w
robinson
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

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A big problem with the data is reporting a positive test result as a case

The facts about that are hard to come by
robinson
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by robinson »

And of course the fact that up until recently, all deaths were reported as Covid even when symptoms of Covid were present, just a positive test


Now they don’t do that

The Covid test also can show a positive 12 weeks after recovering from Covid
sparks
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by sparks »

First.
Hotarubi
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Hotarubi »

Doctor X wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:55 pm But a crank site proved the vaccines CAUSE sickness!

But not new variants, unfortunately.

I blame sparks.

– J.D.
Why do you hate the evaxolution of the variovants??? 107% Realz!!1

Where am dat wartymelon.
Doctor X
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

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Speekee props engrish!

– J.D.
Pyrrho
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

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https://www.ideastream.org/news/some-an ... icials-say
University Hospitals and MetroHealth have stopped using some brands of monoclonal antibody treatments that aren't effective against the omicron variant of COVID-19, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Monday revoked the emergency use authorization for Regeneron and Eli Lilly antibody drugs.

Omicron looks so different than the original virus or any of the other variants that the antibody treatment no longer recognizes the virus, said MetroHealth infectious disease specialist Dr. Amy Ray.

"The drugs that were specifically tailored to the alpha variant and the delta variant recognize those strains very well, but the antibodies just were not recognizing omicron," she said.

Because the antibodies couldn't recognize the virus, it couldn't bind to it to neutralize it, or kill it, Ray said.

The antibody treatment Sotrovimab still works, but supply is so low that Ohio hospitals have to prioritize those most at risk, she said.
Pyrrho
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

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https://www.npr.org/2022/01/25/10755191 ... r-biontech
Pfizer and BioNTech have begun a clinical trial to evaluate a new, omicron-specific vaccine for COVID-19, the pharmaceutical companies announced Tuesday.

Though people who are vaccinated and boosted appear to be better protected against severe disease and hospitalization from omicron, the highly contagious variant has still led to breakthrough cases and a surge in overall infections across the world.
...
The study will include as many as 1,420 participants divided into three groups.
robinson
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

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robinson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:42 pm The Covid test also can show a positive 12 weeks after recovering from Covid
CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said testing for COVID-19 at the end of a quarantine period is no longer needed because PCR tests can detect the virus for up to 12 weeks after infection, even after the person is no longer contagious.

“So, what we do know is the PCR test after infection can be positive for up to 12 weeks so that is not going to be helpful,” Walensky said Wednesday during an appearance on “Good Morning America.”
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2021/1 ... infection/
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Re: The Covid vaccines really do work

Post by Anaxagoras »

Meanwhile, here in Japan:

Infected young people don’t need to visit doctors, ministry says
The health ministry changed its COVID-19 policy and said Jan. 24 that young people with mild symptoms do not need to consult with doctors and can just recuperate at home.

The new policy is aimed at ensuring that outpatient care services are not overwhelmed by a surge in novel coronavirus infections.

The ministry said that people under 40 can test themselves for the virus and avoid clogging up hospitals because they are at a lower risk of developing severe symptoms.

In some municipalities, the number of outpatients has been soaring, leading to long lines for tests conducted by doctors.

Health experts advising the government on anti-virus measures on Jan. 21 recommended a change in policy to ease pressure on medical care systems.

“Young generations who are at a lower risk do not always need to go to see doctors and should be allowed to recuperate at home,” the proposal said.

Local governments can decide on their own on whether to adopt the new policy, depending on the infection situation in their jurisdictions.
Although 79% of people here are double-vaccinated now, very few people have had a booster shot yet. Right now I think it's only health care workers and residents of nursing homes who have received booster shots in most places. Even very old people who don't live in nursing homes haven't had one yet, but the omicron wave is definitely here, so it beat the boosters to the punch.

Based on this data, here is my rough estimate of the case fatality rate in Japan for January (1/1 to 1/25):

Number of deaths: 166
Number discharged (people who recovered): 151,132

This yields a CFR of 0.11% (0.1098% if you want more digits of precision). I don't know if this is a sound method, and of course it only applies to Japan in the month of January, 2022, but if that is close to the true number, it is close to the CFR for influenza now. It's important to remember that this is with the vast majority of people over the age of 18 being double-vaxxed, but not boosted. My estimate might be low because deaths are a lagging indicator.

I'm picking Jan. 1st as a starting point not only because it is a new year, but also because that's about when omicron really started to take off in Japan.

If I apply the same method for the delta wave last summer, from 7/10 to 10/20, I get the following:

Number of deaths: 3,206
Number discharged: 904,891

Which gives a CFR of 0.35%. About 3 times higher. Maybe deaths need more time to be fully counted and added to the data, so it's possible that this data is too recent to compare and more deaths will show up in the data later. But we'll see. I'll try again after this wave is over and see if that estimate was close.